Week 1 for College Football was rough to say the least (4-6), but it’s a long season and there is plenty of time for me to bounce back. Week 2 College Football and Week 1 NFL picks are posted below.
TCU At SMU under 61: SMU was very lucky to put up 23 points last week; they only had 9 first downs and all of their points came in the fourth quarter. If SMU continues to struggle early on, it will be difficult to score in garbage time against a more disciplined TCU team. TCU also only scored 33 PPG and allowed 19 PPG last year, if SMU doesn’t have a better start offensively, this could be a comfortable under.
Mississippi State -7 At Kansas State: By the time this game starts or this pick gets posted, the line will likely not be available; it opened at Mississippi State -6 and will likely move to almost -10 by game time. This is because Kansas State looked awful against FCS level South Dakota, needing a missed field goal at the end of the game to avoid going to overtime. Meanwhile, Mississippi State had no trouble with their FCS opponent and I expect Nick Fitzgerald to have a huge game and dominate a slower Wildcats defense. Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in non conference games, while Kansas State is 1-5 in home games. The SEC also dominated week 1 and I’d expect that dominance to continue here.
Duke At Northwestern under 49: I got burned last week by Northwestern, but I’m still not worried about their offense. They benefited from 21 points off of turnovers and when Clayton Thorson came out of the game their offense lost all momentum. Both of these teams are also heavy under teams. Under is 5-1 for Duke on the road, 11-3 in September for Duke, 22-6-1 in non conference for Northwestern, 37-13-1 at home for Northwestern. All these trends point to a low scoring battle.
Nevada At Vanderbilt -9.5: Vanderbilt had no trouble with a solid group of 5 team, and now having a significantly worse Nevada team coming to town they are laying less than 10 points? I love this pick, Vandy has covered in 5 straight out of conference games against FBS opponents. Vandy typically gets bullied against SEC teams loaded with talent up front, but out of conference they have been very successful recently under Derek Mason in beating up on lesser competition. I expect Vandy’s defense, which has allowed 37 points in the past 5 out of conference games, to shut down a Nevada offense that put up 72 points in week 1.
Arizona +5 At Houston: Wow, talk about an overreaction to a week 1 game. Arizona by no means was impressive in their week 1 upset loss against BYU, but did we ignore what Houston did against a terrible Rice team that barely survived against an FCS opponent in week 0? Houston was only up 4 entering the 4th quarter before finally pulling away, but that performance was not impressive enough to be above a field goal favorite against an Arizona team that got plenty of preseason hype.
UCLA +30 At Oklahoma: Oddsmakers have been hesitant in putting out a line in this UCLA At Oklahoma game, and for good reason. Oklahoma looked dominant against Lane Kiffin and FAU, going up 56-0 at one point! UCLA, on the other hand, took an embarrassing loss to Cincinnati at home to open up the Chip Kelly era. Whatever number the oddsmakers put out will get hammered by Oklahoma betters, which is why I’d advise you to bet this game as close to kickoff as possible because I see this line continuing to climb no matter what. This isn’t a pick you are going to want to make, but will be one you should make if you are committed to making money in the long run.
Georgia At South Carolina over 52: I’m very high on both of these teams, taking their season win total over for both of the respective teams. Jake Fromm and Jake Bentley are both underrated quarterbacks with plenty of playmakers able to put up points. Georgia also lost lots of NFL talent on defense last season so it should be easier for South Carolina to move the ball early in the season.
Buffalo +5 At Temple: Temple lost to an FCS opponent in week 1 and is laying points against a Buffalo team with an explosive offense. That doesn’t make much sense to me. Buffalo has 2 offensive studs in QB Tyree Jackson (6 touchdowns in week 1) and WR Anthony Johnson (All American). I expect these 2 to connect throughout the day to lead the Bulls to an upset win over the Owls.
North Carolina -15.5 At East Carolina: East Carolina lost to an FCS opponent in week 1 and nobody was really surprised, now they play a P5 team not named Kansas? Watch out. North Carolina lost the turnover battle 4-0 against Cal in week 1, a major reason why they lost. I expect a major bounce back despite the suspensions still in play for the Heels.
Umass At Georgia Southern over 62: Umass overs will be one of my favorite plays all season because Umass loves points and has the ability to score in bunches. Their defense is also awful, they gave up 48 points in the first half to Boston College. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has had their own defensive woes recently, giving up 35 or more points in half of their games last season. This is also a rematch of a game last year that ended 55-20, expect a similar amount of points this time around.
Wyoming +17 At Missouri: After week 1 everyone was jumping on the Wyoming bandwagon after their defense held New Mexico State to 7 first downs. This hype was brought to a halt after Washington State put up 41 points in a huge win. I’m getting back on the bandwagon for week 2 and game 3 of Wyoming because I think their hyped defense can slow down Missouri enough and will hold the ball long enough to keep the game within 2 touchdowns.
Clemson At Texas A&M under 54.5: Clemson has a loaded defensive line that returns from last season, and they got off to a good start by shutting out Furman for 3 quarters. Texas A&M put up points on Northwestern State, but I’m very interested to see how Jimbo Fisher’s offense handles a different animal in Clemson’s defense.
UTEP At UNLV -23.5: UTEP lost by 20 at home to a FCS team, now they travel to play an UNLV team that loves points? Uh oh.
Michigan State -7 At Arizona State: Everyone was bashing Arizona State for hiring Herm Edwards, and after 1 game against UTSA they are only a touchdown underdog over Michigan State? I know Sparty wasn’t impressive in a week 1 win over Utah State but I still have faith in Michigan State figuring it out especially considering their offense seemed to have no trouble putting up points in week 1. I think coach Mark Dantonio will have an easier time fixing his defense and getting them ready for a big week 2 battle.