Last week was interesting, depending on the lines you got I went anywhere from 10-6-1 or 9-8, but I’ll call it 10-7 based on updated lines when the article was posted. Based on that, I’m now 40-27 ATS on the season, which is just a shade under 60%, but with a good week I can go back above that magic number.
Saturday: Illinois -3.5 At Rutgers: We all know Rutgers is terrible, and although Illinois isn’t very good either, they’re better. Rutgers offense has been terrible against P5 competition, scoring only 34 points in 3 games. The Scarlet Knights were only able to put up 13 against Buffalo. Illinois competed with Penn State for a long time and that game was on Thursday night rather than Saturday. Illinois will have some extra rest and should be very prepared for this matchup, as it will likely be the only BIG 10 win for the Illini if they get it.
Texas At Oklahoma over 60: Kyler Murray got ‘benched’ last week, and ended up throwing for over 20 yards per pass and six touchdowns. Texas is starting to kinda figure out this offense thing, and Oklahoma’s defense is swiss cheese. The Sooners gave up 33 points to Baylor, a team that isn’t exactly an offensive powerhouse. I expect plenty of points in this huge rivalry game.
Syracuse -4 At Pitt: Syracuse has been quietly impressive this season. The Orange were finally beaten last week on the road against Clemson, falling by just four points. Syracuse’s offense has been able to put up crazy points on lesser competition, and Pitt’s defense isn’t strong. The Orange also shouldn’t be phased by this road environment, as Pitt fans are likely losing interest in the season considering the Panthers are already 2-3.
Northern Illinois At Ball State under 52.5: I lost an under ticket on the Huskies last week, but it was clearly the right play. With a 13-13 game going into overtime, all I needed was the game to end in the first overtime period, unfortunately the two teams scored touchdowns and after neither team being able to score in the second overtime, both teams scored in the third overtime pushing the total over. The moral of the story, without some insane bad luck, Northern Illinois unders have been good for me. I’m riding their defense and below average offense.
Ohio -12.5 At Kent State: Ohio is back, as the Bobcats offense found their feet last week against Umass and Nathan Rourke got back to performing as he did during his sophomore campaign. Rourke averaged 10 yards per touch in the first half and was unstoppable all day. Kent State started the year impressively going 1-1 and covering the first two games, but then they lost by 53 to Penn State, 21 to Mississippi, and 28 to Ball State. I’m fading the Golden Flashes till further notice.
USF At Umass over 70: Umass got torched by Ohio’s offense last week, giving up 58 points and 664 yards. Blake Barnett has taken over at quarterback for the Bulls and their offense hasn’t skipped a beat. Umass also puts up tons of points against below average defenses and I’d expect them to put up at least 24 points this week.
Indiana +25 At Ohio State: Ohio State is due for a letdown this week after a very emotional victory over Penn State. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Buckeyes start off slow before separating themselves from the Hoosiers.
Old Dominion At Florida Atlantic -14.5 and over 65.5: Florida Atlantic has been very disappointing this season, but I’m finally ready to buy stock in Lane Kiffin and the Owls. Devin Singletary is one of the best G5 running backs in the nation, and with only one game averaging over five yards per carry, I’d expect him to explode this weekend. Old Dominion has finally found some offense with new QB Blake LaRussa, who has put up 35 and 49 points in two starts this season.
UAB +9 At Louisiana Tech: Louisiana Tech just came off a tough win over North Texas on the road, a very impressive performance from the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech might be a little worn out though, as they are coming off games on the road against in state rivals LSU as well as that road trip to North Texas. UAB been a fairly consistent team since restoring their football program.
Washington At UCLA +21: Washington is coming off a handful of impressive performances, looking dominant against BYU, Arizona State, and Utah. UCLA has been terrible this season, however if Chip Kelly has any positive momentum this season, it has to come this week at home. Jake Browning was also crazy efficient against BYU, and I expect him to come back to earth this weekend on the road.
Liberty -4 At New Mexico State: Liberty was one of my favorite plays last week, getting a touchdown at New Mexico. The Flames led 42-10, before winning by 9. Liberty is just another level of team compared to these New Mexico schools. New Mexico State is also very lucky to even have one victory this season. The Aggies were outgained by over 100 yards against UTEP, who most consider to be the worst team in FBS.
Utah At Stanford -5: Uh is this line for real? Why is Stanford less than a touchdown favorite at home against Utah. The Cardinal got wrecked by Notre Dame, but the Fighting Irish have been very impressive this season. Bryce Love hasn’t been great this season but he’s still got crazy talent. Utah is 1-3 ATS this season and they only have one FBS win. This line seems very fishy but I’m going to dive right in and take the Cardinal.