Although they couldn’t cover and get me the win against the spread, the Buckeyes still downed the Nittany Lions in dramatic fashion last week, so my spirits are high. That being said, I move to 3-2 on the season picking the Buckeyes against the spread. Today’s matchup is one of the hardest lines of the year involving the Bucks, and one where the smartest move is probably not to touch it! But I know many of you will still want to roll with the Bucks (or against them), so here is why the Buckeyes will and won’t cover the 27 points they are given today against the Hoosiers:
Reason the Buckeyes WILL cover the spread:
After taking down Penn State Urban Meyer stated the following:
“We are 5-0 and have yet to play our best game.”
This is a good sign for Buckeye nation and also for anyone taking the buckeyes to cover today. Coming off a big win might just end up being the extra momentum the offense needed to have their biggest game yet. They are one of the hottest teams in the country, and this heat will likely carry into Saturday.
Involving a different type of heat; the forecast is 85 and partly cloudy. This will allow the offense to throw the ball downfield and not have to worry about any rain storms like they have consistently at home this season.
As far as game variables go that might throw the Bucks for a loop; I can’t find any. The Indiana defense is pitiful and their offense struggled to move the ball last week against Rutgers, who we all know isn’t so great at this whole football thing. On paper, this should be a 35+ point win for Ohio State.
Reasons the Buckeyes WON’T cover the spread:
There is one outlying reason the Buckeyes may just find themselves struggling to blowout the Hoosiers. Big wins are often followed by BIG lets downs! Ohio State is coming off one of the biggest wins anyone has had this season: a 4th quarter comeback win against a top 10 team on the road.
While I would love to trust Urban Meyer to have the guys ready to go, and not acting overconfident about last weekend’s performance, we have all seen this storyline too many times, specifically a year ago in their loss against Iowa. Ironically that Iowa game was also a week after a one point comeback win over Penn State.
There isn’t a chance Indiana will complete to win this game and take down the Bucks like the Hawkeyes did a year ago; they don’t have the talent. But a slow start from the Bucks could lead to a 24-30 point victory, hovering right around that 27 point mark.
Record picking Ohio State in 2018: 3-2
Prediction: Ohio State -27
Buckeyes 52 Hooiers 14
Vegas is expecting the Buckeyes to have a mild week on offense after beating Penn State last Saturday, however the number 27 is just too low.