After a 9-4 week I’m now 49-31 ATS this season, that’s a 61.25% win ratio. I know some regression is coming, but I can’t wait to see how long this hot streak stays alive.
Friday: South Florida -7 At Tulsa: South Florida is probably the second worst unbeaten team in the FBS left, ahead of only Colorado. However only laying a touchdown against a 1-4 conference opponent is crazy to me. South Florida should have absolutely no trouble putting up points on the Golden Hurricane defense. On the flip, Tulsa’s offense could keep up for a good portion of the game, but they won’t stay with the Bulls all night.
Saturday: Florida At Vanderbilt under 51: Vandy started off the year amazingly, crushing Middle Tennessee and Nevada before barley falling to Notre Dame in South Bend. After that it has been all downhill. Vandy got beat down by South Carolina and Georgia in between a scare against an FCS opponent. I have a lean to Florida -7, but I like the under even more. Vandy’s offense hasn’t put up over 20 points against a P5 team, and Florida is only avergiging 25.75 points against conference opponents.
Tennessee At Auburn under 47.5: Auburn has looked terrible on offense all season, only passing 24 points once against a FBS opponent. Jarrett Stidham has been an average SEC QB playing behind a terrible offensive line. Meanwhile, Tennessee hasn’t gotten any offensive firepower under new coach Jeremy Pruitt. The Vols highest point total against a FBS opponent has been 24 points. I’d expect them to not come close to that number this weekend and struggle all game on that side of the football against an Auburn defense that can give any offense a tall task.
Duke +3 At Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets offense typically gives teams that don’t see triple option attacks trouble; Duke has seen this offense every single year. I expect the Blue Devils to step up and rebound after a blowout loss to Virginia Tech. Duke also had two weeks to prepare for this triple option attack and should be fully prepared to slow it down.
Georgia -7.5 At LSU: Georgia is one of the best teams in the country, LSU proved last week that they weren’t. Georgia has been DOMINATING opponents all season, putting up crazy offensive and defensive stats against pretty much every opponent. LSU was due for some regression, the Tigers entered last week with a worse yards per play advantage than Vandy, Florida took advantage of this and also forced Joey Burrow to beat the Gators, Burrow was solid but eventually made a crucial pick 6 in the 4’th quarter to seal a Florida win. I think Georgia comes into Tiger stadium and continues to roll.
Washington At Oregon +3.5: Justin Herbert is facing his biggest challenge yet as Oregon QB this season, but I think he will be up for it. Washington has been very impressive after a season opening loss to Auburn, but Auburn hasn’t been as impressive as we thought they would be. Oregon also has a significant home field advantage in this situation and I’d expect Autzen stadium to be absolutely rocking this Saturday to cheer on their Ducks.
UCF -3.5 At Memphis: UCF has won a lot of games in a row and scored 30+ points in each one of those games. I don’t expect either of those streaks to end this Saturday At Memphis, despite the fact that the Tigers will be very motivated after the Knights beat them twice last year.
Texas A&M -2 At South Carolina: Somehow, someway, South Carolina found a way to beat Missouri last Saturday. S&P+ gave Missouri a 96% win probability at the end of the game, but somehow the Gamecocks came out on top. This weekend, I don’t think the magic will continue, Michael Scarnecchia is a nice story, but the Aggies would provide a whole different level on the defensive side of the ball. If Jake Bentley starts that would increase South Carolina’s odds to win, but I still don’t love them. Simply put, Texas A&M is very underrated and their six point overtime victory over Kentucky doesn’t show how dominant they were all night against the Wildcats offense.
Miami At Virginia over 48.5: The line at this game has already moved three points past a key number, but I’m more interested in the total dropping five points. I disagree with this move completely, Virginia has an improved offense and has scored over 20 points all but once this season. Miami has looked better on offense since N’Kosi Perry took over at QB, and the Hurricanes defense is solid but they can also create points by themselves. Turnovers were a main reason why Miami came back against Florida State, using turnovers to set up short fields for the Canes offense.
Missouri At Alabama over 74.5: Alabama will score 50 points in this game, and I’m very confident in this statement. Bama has been unbeatable this season, but if they are vulnerable at any spot it is defensively. The Crimson Tide haven’t had the typical dominant defense that Nick Saban is known for, and I’d expect Drew Lock to put up enough stats to push this total over a very large number for an SEC game.
Virginia Tech -5.5 At North Carolina: Maybe this is a total trap, but Virginia Tech is over a touchdown better than North Carolina regardless of where they play the game. It’s just that simple.
West Virginia At Iowa State over 56: West Virginia has been an offensive powerhouse all season, with Will Grier and David Stills lighting up scoreboards all across the nation. Their lowest point total is 35 points, and it came in a comfortable victory over Kansas State. Iowa State is easily influenced by their opponent for how the pace of the game goes. The Cyclones had games with under 40 total points against Iowa, TCU, and Akron. However, in their two games against the Big 12 Oklahoma schools, there have been 154 points scored in two games. West Virginia is more similar to the Oklahoma schools and I’d expect this game to be played at that type of scoring pace.
Middle Tennessee At FIU under 58: Middle Tennessee has been awesome in Conference USA play this year, taking down Marshall and Florida Atlantic. While these wins have been impressive, I’m not ready to fully buy into their offense. The Blue Raiders haven’t played a game over this point total against an FBS opponent this season, and FIU has been disappointing against the competent defenses.