I had my second worst week in my career going 4-9! Despite this fact, I am still 53-40 on the season in CFB and I’m 21-12 in the NFL. To get my NFL picks listen to my podcast, Talking With House Money, which is available on most podcast platforms. Good luck to everyone this weekend.
Saturday: Michigan -7 At Michigan State: Typically, I would like to fade a team after a huge national spotlight win that is a favorite going against a rival, but there is too much value going against Michigan State right now. The Wolverines have been very impressive after a season opening loss to a still unbeaten Notre Dame team. Michigan State is also coming off a flukey upset win over Penn State (25% win probability according to S&P+) and a loss to Northwestern. I simply believe that Michigan State isn’t that good and Michigan is.
Cincinnati At Temple -3.5: This is a purley system play, fading ranked teams that are underdogs. This has been a consistent staple for years, winning at around a 60% rate. Temple is ranked as a better offense, defense, and special teams according to most Vegas oddsmakers. I can’t imagine Temple being less than a touchdown favorite if Ohio could get one more yard and if Cincy wasn’t unbeaten. Simply put, I think this is too much line value to not jump on the Owls in this situation, as I can’t see Cincy going 12-0 and this seems like the perfect game to end their unbeaten season.
Bowling Green At Ohio over 69: Neither of these teams play any defense at all. Nathan Rourke has been back to his sophomore level of play, in fact, he’s been at his best the past three weeks. He’s already won two MAC offensive player of the week awards and should have a field day against a Bowling Green team that just fired their head coach. Carl Pelini might fire the Falcons up but I don’t think he’s going to fix one of the worst defenses in the FBS. However, one thing the Falcons can do is score the football, they’ve scored 71 points in their last two MAC games and should put up points against an Ohio defense that hasn’t shut anybody down.
Eastern Michigan -3 At Ball State: Simply put, I think Eastern Michigan is a vastly superior team to Ball State. The Cardinals are a nice story but they haven’t beat anybody of substance. Eastern Michigan has been actually impressive this season, jumping all over Toledo before winning by two, and then also taking Northern Illinois and San Diego State to overtime. The Eagles have been competitive in every loss this season and have already played three of the best teams in the conference, Ball State won’t be anything to be afraid of. I expect Eastern Michigan to be focused and improve on their bowl chances with a convincing win.
Wake Forest +10.5 At Florida State: Florida State hasn’t been impressive enough to lay double digits against a competent conference team. Wake Forest has been blown out by Notre Dame and Clemson, but both of those teams are college football playoff contenders, much higher level of competition than Florida State. The impressive performance that the Seminoles put together against rival Miami isn’t as impressive after the Hurricanes lost to Virginia. The only wins Florida State has are against Louisville by less than a touchdown, Northern Illinois by 18, and FCS opponent Samford due to massive turnover luck. This Florida State team isn’t good, and they shouldn’t be a double digit favorite.
Minnesota At Nebraska -3.5: I’m in love with the Cornhuskers this week, as they might be the greatest 0-6 team I can remember. Nebraska has outgained their opponents in yards per play in over half their games this year. Nebraska also has an offense due for some huge regression, entering the Northwestern game the Cornhuskers were second last in the nation in point per yard. Minnesota made a great effort in Columbus last weekend and I don’t want to disrespect them, but I cannot see a scenario where Nebraska doesn’t finally get some good luck and starts to figure stuff out.
Akron At Kent State under 55: The highest point total Kent State has scored this year against a FBS opponent is 26 points. Akron’s highest point total is 39 points, but in the other three games against FBS opponents they have scored 36 points. I simply do not believe in either of these offenses and in a rivalry game in what will likely be a little colder, I see a close low scoring contest. Kent State also held Ohio’s elite offense to 27 points, showing improvement on that side of the ball under first year head coach Sean Lewis.
Alabama At Tennessee under 57.5: Tua claims that he is fine, but if Alabama is blowing out Tennessee, I find it likely Nick Saban pulls the plug earlier than usual. Tennessee got a victory over Auburn last weekend, but it was a pretty lucky win and their offense only had two offensive touchdowns. I think this game is an Alabama domination with maybe a high scoring first half but with a sluggish second half with both teams wanting to leave healthy.
Memphis +9.5 At Missouri: The Tigers should’ve beat UCF (I’m one of the biggest pro UCF fans) and if it wasn’t for a huge downpour I’d imagine UCF is no longer unbeaten. The Tigers have one of the best running backs in the country, with Darrell Henderson averaging 10.3 yards per carry this season. 10.3 yards per carry! Missouri has a bad defense and is coming off a blowout against Alabama who can wear anybody down physically.
Mississippi State +7 At LSU: Vegas is telling us something with this line, and which is that LSU is very overrated by the polls. LSU has dominated in high leverage situations, and despite Ed Orgeron being much smarter than what he appears to be when it comes to making decisions mid game, I think eventually LSU’s average yards per play advantage catches up with them. Mississippi State is one of the few teams that can compete with LSU physically up front, and doesn’t have a significant quarterback disadvantage.
Oregon At Washington State -3: I have been very high on Oregon this season, but I think this is such a tough spot for the Ducks right here. Washington State has been impressive this season, putting up at least 30 points in every game this year. Oregon got very lucky to beat Washington, they needed a missed field goal to send it into overtime, and the Ducks got outgained by 1.4 yards per play in the matchup. Because of the Ducks looking so good on national TV, and catapulting into the national spotlight I think they are being overvalued in this situation.
North Texas At UAB over 52: The Mean Green were a team I really liked until a loss to Louisiana Tech in a game they should’ve won. UAB took down that Louisiana Tech team, and they have been dominant at home since returning to football. Mason Fine is one of my favorite G5 quarterbacks and he has been efficient this season. UAB does have a solid defense, but I still think a fast paced North Texas offense gives them enough problems to push this total over.
San Jose State At San Diego State over 43: I cannot see one reason why this line has gone down by over a touchdown. San Jose State is unable to stop anyone, coming off a performance where they gave up 52 points to Army. San Diego State has had some offensive struggles this season but I think they run the score up against a weak Spartans defense. If San Jose State can put up even a single touchdown that would help the over so much, and getting shut out is a low probability event.