Sat. Nov 17th, 2018

College Football Week 11 Picks: More Weeknight MACtion, Ohio State, and USC Headline Michael Roth’s Selections

Last week I went 9-7 to bring my record to 80-59 on the season in CFB. That is a solid record but it’s nothing compared to my 30-16 in the NFL. To get those picks you must listen to my podcast and the only way to get notified when that happens is by following me on twitter @mikerothou. Remember that all team stats are based off of the S&P formula.

Wednesday: Ohio -3.5 At Miami (OH): This play makes sense for so many reasons, but a big reason for this faith in the Bobcats is this trend, which is complicated but I hope you can follow. Teams coming off back to back wins by 27+ points going against a team that gave up 36+ points are 130-53 ATS. That’s an absurd number, and Ohio is only laying a field goal and half a point? You have an Ohio team that has been dominating MAC play the past three weeks, scoring 160 points and giving up 42. Ohio’s offense is rolling and Miami just gave up 51 points to Buffalo. I like the Bobcats.

Thursday: Louisville +21 At Syracuse: I’m sorry but Syracuse are just total frauds. The Orange have one top 70 win, which is laughable for being a ‘top 15’ team according to the AP poll. I know Louisville is terrible but there is so much value in going against Syracuse at this point despite the fact that I’m a fan of Eric Dungey.

Friday: Fresno State -3 At Boise State: I’m sorry but Fresno State is being absolutely disrespected by the playoff committee. The Bulldogs have had every one of their wins by 18 or more points and in their only loss of the season was by a touchdown at Minnesota in a game where they had a 60% post game win probability. Boise State has not been the same team on the blue turf after Chris Peterson left. The Broncos have been significantly better ATS on the road than at home and I think their home field advantage is still overvalued. I love Fresno State in this matchup.

Saturday: Illinois At Nebraska over 68: I guess I wasn’t really paying enough attention to the Fighting Illini offense because they have gone over this total for the past three games, which kind of stuns me. Nebraska has a really solid offense and Adrian Martinez has been what Scott Frost has needed to attempt to recreate the UCF offense at his alma mater. If the Illini play like they have the past couple weeks this final should be around 45-38 and points should be flying on the scoreboard.

Ohio State -3.5 At Michigan State: I told myself that I would be staying away from this game unless Ohio State was less than a four point favorite, and what do you know, the Buckeyes open as a 3.5 point favorite. I am not a fan of the Buckeyes this season and I don’t think they are in the same class as some of the other CFB playoff contenders, but I am pretty confident that no matter where they play the game, they’re over a field goal better than Michigan State. Dwayne Haskins is a stud and Michigan State has Brian Lewerke to counter at the quarterback position. Give me Haskins every single time.

Kansas At Kansas State under 45.5: This game is going to be terrible, Kansas is terrible, and Kansas State isn’t much better. Luckily there is something you can pick that predicts a terrible game. Let’s just hope for no special teams and defensive touchdowns.

Navy +25.5 At UCF: Everyone knows that I love UCF, and honestly would rather see them win by three touchdowns, but getting over 25 points seems a few points too many. UCF does not play much defense and triple option teams can sometime be difficult to handle later in the season.

North Texas -14 At Old Dominion: The Mean Green are one of four teams to have out-gained their opponents in total yards in every game this season. The other three teams are Alabama, Michigan, and Washington State. That puts Mason Fine and the rest of the Mean Green team in pretty good company, and they’re competing against an overvalued Old Dominion team that sputtered after their incredible upset of Virginia Tech.

Oklahoma State At Oklahoma over 76: It’s Oklahoma Vs Oklahoma crime, and they’re being charged with bullying the opposing defense. Both of these teams can put up points in a hurry; Oklahoma has scored 37 or more points in every game but one this season and the Cowboys have put up 40+ in all but two games this season, so I’m expecting a ton of points.

Mississippi State +24.5 At Alabama: I know that betting against Alabama hasn’t been a valuable proposition but in the one time I did pick against the Tide, Texas A&M barely covered, but a win is a win. I really like Mississippi State’s defense, and they will have to be huge for the Bulldogs to keep this a competitive game. Nick Fitzgerald isn’t going to be a quarterback who will hurt the Crimson Tide defense vertically, but with the third ranked rushing attack in the country, Mississippi State could be the team that finally really pushes the Crimson Tide. I don’t expect this to happen simply because Alabama is awesome and it’s in Tuscaloosa but I wouldn’t be stunned if this is around a two touchdown game heading to the fourth.

Oregon At Utah -4: I know Utah just got killed by Arizona State, but this is still a significantly better team than Oregon. The Utes play actual defense and aren’t reliant on Justin Herbert hiding all of the flaws that the team possesses. Oregon has outperformed their expected adjusted scoring margin in five of their past six games but have quietly been not good since the huge victory over Washington. I’m very comfortable riding with the Utes in this one by slightly over a field goal.

LSU At Arkansas over 47.5: Arkansas has started to play some offensive football recently; the Razorbacks have put up 30 or more points in three of their last four conference games, which shows that Chad Morris is finally starting to get his offense working with limited talent. LSU’s offense looked like they had limited talent against Alabama, but this is a nice bounce back spot for Joe Burrow. If he can’t shred the 92nd ranked pass defense in the nation then LSU has some problems on their hands.

Cal At USC -5: I know the Trojans have been underwhelming this season, but this team is still a touchdown better than Cal at home. USC is pretty consistent across the board because not only do the Trojans have the 43rd ranked team, but they’re also ranked 43rd on offense and defense. Cal pushed Washington State, but the Cougars were dominant throughout the game, and just somehow didn’t finish the Bears until a late touchdown by Gunner Minshew, which shouldn’t have been necessary for the win. USC is also trying to start off another long home winning streak after their last one was snapped at the hands of Arizona State a couple weeks ago.

Basketball: Whenever there are basketball picks for me to make at the end of one of these articles I’m going to post them in here to limit myself from an extra tweet. My only CBB pick of the night is Western Carolina At Wright State under 146.5, I’m 6-4-1 on the season in college basketball.

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