I went 6-6 last week and find myself sitting at 86-65 on the season, I’m hoping I bounce back in a week without many marquee games. As always all team rankings are from Bill Connelly’s S&P+ formula.
Florida Atlantic At North Texas -3: I absolutely love the Mean Green in this game. North Texas has outgained their opponent in every game this season and have one of the best special teams in the country. I know Florida Atlantic has won a couple games in a row but they aren’t impressive at all this season. I cannot comprehend why North Texas is only a field goal favorite at all, these teams are nowhere close to being even on a neutral field.
Arkansas At Mississippi State under 46.5: This Bulldog offense is absolutely terrible, they haven’t put up points on anybody in SEC play and despite Arkansas being one of the worst defenses in the conference. Mississippi State should shut down the Hogs because the Bulldogs defense is very stingy and just competed with Alabama for 60 minutes.
Middle Tennessee At Kentucky under 45: This is another game where an SEC opponent is facing a vastly inferior opponent where the top team has a stout defense and an inept quarterback. I know Middle Tennessee’s offense doesn’t suck with Brent Stockstill who has thrown for over 11,000 yards in his career for the Blue Raiders, but Kentucky has shown the ability to shut down the better SEC offenses and Middle Tennessee isn’t anything they haven’t seen.
Pitt At Wake Forest +6: This is kind of a similar situation to when Virginia was such a big favorite against these Panthers. I don’t believe Pitt should be almost a touchdown favorite on the road against a conference opponent who isn’t terrible. Wake Forest can certainly put up points in this matchup and could take advantage of a Pitt team coming in overconfident.
Northwestern At Minnesota +3: This is a classic letdown spot for the Wildcats after clinching the Big 10 West division title and their first appearance in the Big 10 title game. With the pressure off the Wildcats I could see their players relaxing for this matchup. Minnesota is also almost a touchdown favorite in this game according to S&P+ so there is just so much value with the Golden Gophers in this game.
Boston College -1.5 At Florida State: I know Boston College lost their starting QB and their offense looked fairly inept against Clemson with backup Ej Perry in the game. I simply think Florida State will be unable to block the stud defensive players on the Eagles. Zach Allen and Wyatt Ray should be living in the backfield all night against the Seminoles and I’d expect them to mess up the Florida State offense all night.
Umass At Georgia over 63: I think Umass actually puts up somewhere between 14-17 points against Georgia and because of this I think the Bulldogs keep their foot on the gas for a little longer than usual. I also like the over in this game because I think Georgia will keep trying to score with Justin Fields in the game. Andy Isabella is a finalist for the best receiver in the nation award and he could get some garbage time stats in this contest.
Stanford -2.5 At Cal: I know that Stanford has been disappointing this season but I think we’re disrespecting the Cardinal by making them less than a field goal favorite at Cal. The Cardinal boast the 8’th ranked passing offense in the country so even if they fall behind early they have the offensive firepower to get right back into the game. Cal also only has one conference win where they scored over 15 points, and that was against Oregon State. I doubt the Cal defense holds the Cardinal offense to less than two touchdowns so this would be fairly uncharted territory for the Bears to get a conference win.
UTEP +7.5 At Western Kentucky: Western Kentucky shouldn’t be favored by over a touchdown against anyone. Anyone! UTEP has also been very respectable since entering conference play and I’d argue even more impressive than the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has also been disappointing this season, I’d imagine most of their players want this season to end as soon as possible. UTEP on the other hand is still playing for pride, after just breaking the 20 game losing streak less on the 3’rd of this month, the Miners are hungry looking for their second win of the season.
Iowa State At Texas over 49: I’m not sure why this total is under 50 points? Sam Elighner and Brock Purdy are perfectly capable quarterbacks who can make plays along with three absolute stud receivers in this game. So unless I’m completely missing something this over seems like a great pick.